I believe in critical thinking skills. It is good to be a little skeptical about nearly everything. I recently articulated the position as, “I trust in God, but everyone else had better bring evidence.” Not everyone is happy about that.
Evidence matters and it is in short supply when people project future events, people’s attitudes, or the reasons events occur. We often assign meaning with an incomplete foundation. We misunderstand the idea of probability.
We cannot project the future or even adequately describe the past and present. It is an interpretation issue. Here are a few reasons:
The past is gone and holds incomplete lessons. The present does not last long. The future is unknowable. Use your skills to estimate reasons and guess outcomes. Look for tendencies among the players. Look for new information. Do not expect things to always work out as you thought.
Recall Damon Runyon’s similar advice. “The race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.” Gamblers work on the balance of probability idea and so should you.
Don Shaughnessy arranges life insurance for people who understand the value of a life insured estate. He can be reached at The Protectors Group, a large insurance, employee benefits, and investment agency in Peterborough, Ontario. In previous careers, he has been a partner in a large international public accounting firm, CEO of a software start-up, a partner in an energy management system importer, and briefly in the restaurant business.
Please be in touch if I can help you. firstname.lastname@example.org 866-285-7772