Good decisions drive good planning and lead to good outcomes. we should pay more attention to the skill.
Physician and author, Sid Mukherjee claims Bayesian logic is greatly neglected idea. The essence of Bayesian logic is that everything has priors. Things that have happened already. What will happen next, posterior probability depends on those priors and most of us do not pay careful attention to them.
People who use Bayesian logic, intuitively, or with intent, soon recognize that surprising things can happen in a stochastic world. These folks have two obvious characteristics.
It is easy to see professional poker players using the technique.
Daniel Kahneman claims intuition does not work unless three conditions are met.
People often make decisions using their intuition, instinct, or experience. Sometimes none of the three conditions are present or fully developed. Making intuitive decisions for most of us is just guessing. Naming it as experience or intuition is not especially helpful
One and done is uncommon
There is no such thing as a one decision stock. No business plan is beyond revision. No family life plan is immutable. Every plan must admit the possibility of change given observations not in keeping with the original plan. Good outcomes come at the end of many adequate or better decisions.
Thus the 3Rs of plan maintenance
Ones enshrined on good paper with colour pie charts are very official looking and because they seem complicated and arcane, we tend to think we are missing something if we don’t understand them. If you can’t understand the plan, you have no hope of making it work. Look for planners who make things simpler and more clear.
Recall how the early settlers of the west got to be there. Each morning they put the sun behind them and drive forward until it set in front of them. Thousands did that without the benefit of GPS. Most found the help of guide to be in their favour.
Your life will unfold in surprising ways. Have a few simple rules to govern it and seek the help of guide when the situation becomes difficult.
They help you make decisions in times of uncertainty or chaos.
Reserve the right to make the decision. No advisor should do that for you. They don’t know enough about your particular priors.
I help business owners, professionals, and others understand and manage risk and other financial issues. To help them achieve their goals, I use tax efficiencies and design advantages to acquire more efficient income and larger, more liquid estates.
In previous careers, I have been a partner in a large, international public accounting firm, CEO of a software start-up, a partner in an energy management system importer, and briefly in the restaurant business.
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