Today is September 12th. It is the anniversary of the first day of what was the last big change. We should notice the similarity with our current big change.
After September 11th, people “nested” for several weeks. They were gathering their thoughts and processing new information. Once they understood the new reality they behaved to optimize their best interests.
Governments on the other hand may have been more inclined to use the crisis to expand their product line and range of services.
We won’t see it as an anniversary of note, but we can relate the response to 2001 to what has been happening with respect to the Covid-19 outbreak. People nested. People processed the information and most have taken responsibility for their own actions to make things work. The government is expanding its range of services.
Much of what happened in 2001 was based on faulty knowledge. It is very hard to make good decisions when the facts are unclear. “fog of war” is the idea. Were the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? No, but we didn’t know that. Would we have behaved differently if we had known?
Airline security was supped immensely. The Transportation Security Administration is a nuisance but most people accept it as important. Yet, we know when tested it routinely fails. D9o we care. At some level, I suppose we do but the illusion of security matters to us too. There will no doubt be a vast bureaucracy tasked with defending us from yet unseen viruses. Recall the faulty knowledge question from 2001. At this point, we know the disease has two stages and treatment options in stage 1 are quite different from stage 2.
Prevention seems to be the past approach so far because people are ignoring treatments that work in stage 1 and stage 2 is not a virus problem at all, but an auto-immune problem (bradykinin storm). Dissimilar to regular pneumonia and similar flu side-effects.
Will a vaccine save us. Maybe. But vaccines are notoriously difficult to make specific enough for the purpose. It will be several years before we know one or more work and produce no new risks.
Will the government and its agencies succeed? We will have to wait to know and even then the evidence may not be clear.
Use your own forms of prevention. Avoid contact with large indoor groups. Be sure you are not deficient in vitamin D, lose some weight, get into shape, at least a little. Ideally, be less than 60 and have a blood type other than A. Those may be harder.
Limit the problem to things that matter to you. The first order of business should be to recognize the disease, how it reaches us, and its potential effects on us.
Don’t waste time and energy worrying about where it originated and what long term answers might be for similar problems in the future is well beyond our knowledge and skill anyway. Let the people who know how deal with that.
Answers that appear before enough is known are seldom the right answers. Keep in mind reversibility. If a decision is made now and it can be reversed later at no cost there is no risk. Like the decision to shut down air travel from outside the country. There may be more like that. Hydroxychloroquine seems to be one.
There may be investment opportunities. Be alert.
Best approach. Be selfish and keep it simple.
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