Is Climate Change A Big Problem?

Does climate change matter? Probably, but the question must be, “How much?”

The UN estimates that by 2100 unmitigated climate change will cause a reduction in world GDP. How much difference you ask. Their estimate is world wide it would cost 7.2% of the year 2100 GDP. As much as 10.5% in the U.S. The Washington Post Offers This Insight.

Climate change could cost the U.S. up to 10.5 percent of its GDP by 2100, study finds

Is that catastrophic?

That would be about $25 trillion, so maybe.

I found some data at macrotrends.net World GDP Growth

Over 60 years from 1960 to 2109, world economic growth averaged 3.41%. Using that basis for the future, and it may be too low, world GDP will grow to about 14.6 times what it is now. If the 7.2% reduction happens it will be just 13.57 times more. An average annual growth rate of 3.31% instead of 3.41%.

I am pretty sure you couldn’t tell.

Is the do nothing assumption even possible?

Not really. There are incentives to do things already. Just this week, Elon Musk offered $100 million for the best carbon capture system. Advanced nuclear power generation is a thing. You do realize that the systems in place now are pretty much all pre-1970 technology. Other options exist today. Computers are a better tool than a slide rule. Better solar should happen. Maybe better wind. For all we know now, cold fusion will happen and you could power a city with a unit the size of small school.

People work at solving problems and the results accumulate over decades. Fixing climate change will be a process not an event.

The takeaway

If the UN is right, climate change won’t noticeably affect the world economy. I doubt they can measure it plus or minus 0.1%

There may be other dislocations that some of us will be forced to accommodate. Maybe rising seas will be hard on some. Some crops may be harmed. Others will be helped.

The overnight low here tonight is predicted to be minus 14 Celsius. That’s about 7 Fahrenheit. Yo will need a jacket if you go out. I am not so sure you would get a lot of votes here for reducing any potential warming effect.

We have adapted to slow moving change before and will again. Have faith in our ability to cope.


I help people have more income and larger, more liquid estates.

Call or email don@moneyfyi.com or in Canada 705-927-4770

 

6 Comments on “Is Climate Change A Big Problem?

  1. Thank you for this insightful observation. My take will be from a general point of view. Apart from what we know as human beings in respect of the weather and the world we live in we are far away from predicting with precision what will be. We appreciate the concerns and the research and the investment into the subject but as is the case we will remain with no knowledge of how and who controls the weather as we currently live. It remains to be seen as to whether the one who was instrumental in the ages as depicted through the Ice, Bronze, and others will do.

    We have no control over these things we can only mitigate by investing in alternative sources of energy as is the case with Solar, Wind, Hydro, and all other clean sources

    The Weather is controlled somewhere by someone

  2. Thank you it is good to be back hoped all is well with you

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