Is There A Certain Action That Fixes The Covid-19 Problem?

I appreciate that everyone likes to know the correct answer, but life doesn’t work like that. Success relies on the accumulation of effects from many decisions. Some of the decisions are barely conscious.

When you sell, you are confident.

If you are not, it shows, and people buy less. People want answers, not guesses. Politicians know that, and since they are always selling ideas, they often overstate how sure they are.

We should be more well-rounded.

Apply that to Covid-19

With the virus, there is a strong bias for politicians to oversell certainty. They need to be the saviour. At a minimum, they must be doing something.

They cannot tolerate ambiguity because that makes the message they sell less clear.

Is their answer the best or the only solution? It must be so.

How do they know? They don’t, but cannot confess to that.

Something to think about

Is the vaccine the answer to some problem? Undoubtedly yes.

Is it the answer to wiping out Covid-19? Undoubtedly No.

The “vaccine” is reasonably describable as a useful therapeutic. It is not a sterilizing vaccine, but it seems to prevent most of the seriously adverse results if you become infected. That’s worth some trouble, but it is not as complete an answer as they would have us believe.

Accepting certainty when oversold is a mistake.

Certain implies complete. There are two ways to get perceived completeness.

  1. Provide evidence
  2. Suppress other things

Suppression of objective information is never the correct answer. Most of the other things affecting outcomes with Covid-19 are fuzzy. There is no certainty, and the proponents of vaccines emphasize that and demand certainty for those.

Have you thought about why no therapeutic is known? There may be some—ivermectin, for example. The alternatives are not discussable or permitted. Hide options because they could not issue an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the vaccine if any work. The law assumes emergency only when a disease is severe and there is nothing else available.

It would have been more intelligent to waive the rule and permit any possible thing to be used. Safely, of course. Most of the terror around alternatives is to keep the vaccine as the only thing. We will eventually learn it is not.

Question: The FDA approved the Pfizer vaccine. Why are all the other vaccines used under an EUA still permitted? You’d think they can no longer satisfy the nothing-else-available rule.

Another question: Did the FDA in The US approve teh Pfizer vaccine and eventually the others so they could mandate its use? The government may not mandate an emergency use authorization.

A third question: The vaccines used under an EUA have conditions in their agreements that exempt the manufacturers and the government from liability for any harm they may cause. Does that mean that deaths and injuries resulting from use can now be subject to lawsuits? More likely a class-action lawsuit. I am a little surprised no tort attorneys are organizing such a thing already.

Torts seem to exist. Do the media suppress them? My wife spoke to a woman yesterday whose husband died days after receiving the vaccine. Less than age 50, good health, not overweight, fit. The rule on coincidence applies. Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, more than twice is a pattern. I respectively suggest there are more than two such cases.

Cause and effect are a difficult challenge, but lawyers know how to process the claim.

What are some other things you should know?

  1. Is Vitamin D beneficial? Maybe. Vitamin D supports your innate immune system. The worst outcomes with Covid-19 seem to involve Vitamin D deficiency. Would Vitamin D cure Covid-19? No, but reducing effects has value. Is it expensive? No. Very inexpensive. Are many people deficient? Yes. Is it a complete prophylactic? Certainly Not! But it might help and do no harm.
  2. Does Ivermectin work? We know of no scientific trials, and there may never be any given political response. Observational evidence indicates there might be a preventative value and possibly an early onset treatment advantage. Is it safe? It has been in wide use for more than 40 years. Physicians regard it as one of the safest medications. And, yes, it is used as a horse dewormer. Anyone who takes veterinary drugs has other problems worse than the virus. Is it a complete answer? Certainly Not! But it might help and do no harm.
  3. Should I lose weight and exercise more? Obesity and inactivity correlate with bad outcomes with covid-19. Do they cause those bad outcomes? Not likely, but they are found often enough to wonder. Would being the right weight and a little in shape prevent Covid-19? Certainly Not! But it might help and do no harm.
  4. Does a mask help? There are as many scholarly studies that say not much as there are that show immense value. I think the truth lies in the middle. If you wear a good mask correctly, it should provide some value. Is it a complete preventative? Certainly Not! But it might help and do no harm.
  5. Should I avoid other people? It depends. Prolonged close contact with many people in poorly ventilated indoor settings would be a good thing to avoid. There seems to be a high correlation to indoor transmission. You might wonder if the bump in case counts in Florida, Texas and other southern states was because summer is the indoor season there. Be responsible. Isolation has other costs. Would moderate isolation mean you cannot get Covid-19? Certainly Not! But it might help and do no harm.
  6. Is vaccination safe? Probably for many people, but not all. Pay some attention to where the problems arise. If you have a problematic situation, the decision is much more complicated. Certainty of risk-free efficacy for everyone is not there. We will learn more as the rollout continues. Be aware if you are vulnerable to the virus or the potential adverse side effects. Will the vaccine mean you cannot get Covid-19. Certainly Not! But it might help and do no harm.
  7. Should I get the vaccination?  The answer is an unqualified maybe. If you are under 65, without co-morbidities, in shape, the right weight, with a robust immune system, and not much indoor mixing with others, it will likely not add much value. In other situations, it might reduce the consequences if you acquire the virus. Will the vaccine immunize you against the virus and prevent you from spreading to others? Certainly not, but it might help and probably will do no harm.

Doing many little things is a big thing.

  1. You should be Vitamin D conscious. You should get closer to your ideal weight and get a little exercise. It would help if you used a mask when in close contact with others. It would be best if you were a little standoffish. I saw a comment recently that struck me as funny, “When the epidemic is over, there are some of you I would like to stay away from anyway.”
  2. The government and its many agencies have proven themselves to be unworthy of our trust. That means you cannot know for sure anything that requires their input. Use common sense.
  3. You don’t need certainty; you need many factors tending in the direction of helping you. None would be complete by itself, but a collection of tendencies is often quite powerful.
  4. Watch for potential harm in any of them. Fast weight loss and complete isolation each have potential harm. You can over-exercise and take too much Vitamin D.
  5. The government pronouncements on the factors other than vaccines have been in the form, “This is not conclusively proven to work.” That is a very high standard and is always true. Nothing is 100%. Applied the same way, the vaccine doesn’t work either. A more helpful pronouncement would be, “Such and such could harm you and here’s how and why.” Again evidentiary material would be necessary.

I like tendencies – especially large collections of them. They don’t always work, but if they don’t harm me, why not try them. Most times, they’re cheap.

Being individually and collectively inconclusive, you cannot rely on them as an answer. If the collection leads you to think you are certainly safe, you have misled yourself. Certainty is an illusion for simple minds, children, and politics. Balance of probability is all you get in life. Proof and certainty are time wasters, but fortunately, you don’t often need certainty. It is a little like tax law. You can get an 80% correct answer in 10 minutes. You can get a 98% right answer for $30,000. There is no 100% answer.

Certainty usually indicates ideological thinking. While possibly true, you should evaluate it. Look for the quality of the supporting evidence. Repetition is not evidence. Expert opinion is not evidence. Denial of other things is not evidence. The course of evaluation should require a single demand of the presenters. SHOW YOUR WORK. Absent evidence, the factor presented is, at best, maybe genuine.

Acting to move the balance in your favour is a sound course of action but requires some work and some thought. Be conscious of the idea of “directionally accurate.” You should expect adjustments to direction and changes in velocity as you learn more.

Use your best judgment and move on with enjoying life.


I help people have more retirement income and larger, more liquid estates.

Call in Canada 705-927-4770, or email don@moneyfyi.com

One Comment on “Is There A Certain Action That Fixes The Covid-19 Problem?

  1. Don, Very helpful. Have you been vaccinated? If so which one? Rick

    Sent from my iPhone

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