All Billionaires Are Lucky

Let’s suppose last December (2020) one of my grandchildren decided to give me some cryptocurrency for Christmas. They chose Shibu and bought US$20.00 worth. At the time it would have purchased 20 trillion units. Fast forward to late October 2021 when I rediscover the gift they made to get me thinking about crypto. Just ten months later it was worth US$ 0.00008 per unit.

I thought about what to do for a while and decided I could sell enough to:

  1. Get the $20 back, or
  2. Maybe enough to get back $200. A  10-bagger, nice trade, or
  3. I could sell it all for US$ 1.6 billion.

Of course if I selected 3, I would owe about $540,000,000 Canadian in income taxes. Plus some brokerage fees and such and I’d have to redo my will and reassess my financial plan After 3 microseconds of thought, I chose 3. What would you have done?

Of course the hypothetical grandchild gave me something else. Maybe it was of more value to me. A billion dollars might have made my life harder.

So what’s the point?

Crypto is a Jekyll and Hyde market. Part of it is pure and absolute speculation. The fun part I suppose. The other part, the more established and limited currencies may be predictable within wide limits. Other blockchain uses are evolving.

Shibu has now 549 trillion coins circulating. There is no defined maximum. The price is entirely predicated on what people will pay for it. I have no methods to assess what that will be, even tomorrow, never mind next year. More than that even, it is part of a market place whose future use is unknown. Maybe crypto coins will just go away someday.

The future of blockchain currencies and other objects is largely unknown just now. It is reasonable to assume blockchains will be with us forever. They are perfectly reasonable for some things. Maybe deed registrations, business agreements, even wills. Their use as currency might be acceptable too, but there are existing players with considerable power in the currency space already, and they may choose not to permit it. If the ten or so largest economies in the world outlaw it, I suspect its use as currency will be limited. Maybe entirely useless..

The point for today. Crypto is speculative. There are many more people who have or will lose than will win. If you only notice the wins you will be mislead.

The takeaway

Do not purchase crypto currencies with money you cannot afford to lose.

“It is madness to risk losing what you need in pursuing what you simply desire” Warren Buffett

I help people have more retirement income and larger, more liquid estates.

Call in Canada 705-927-4770, or email

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