Category: Decision Making

Overnight Success Takes Years


The highly skilled have earned their objective success. It is never given or lucky.

Drowning In Sunk Costs


Assess reasons for actions. Doing what you have always done is not necessarily the best approach.

A Pandemic Is A Blemish, Not The End


Things are never as good as they seem nor as bad as they seem

Velleity? What Does That Mean?


You reward yourself with effort and discipline

When To Fight


Governments should use simpler heuristics about war.

Chaos Is The Normal Condition


Our complex world is immensely more complicated than we know or can know.

Treat Important Decisions More Formally


Keep the minutes as you decide what to do and how to do it.

Models Are Not Facts


Models help you understand a problem They are a summary of the implications of what you know.

Models and Model Building


Never accept the output from a model as a fact about the future.

Amateurs Don’t Get It


Critics are of little value unless they add value to the solution.

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