The highly skilled have earned their objective success. It is never given or lucky.
Assess reasons for actions. Doing what you have always done is not necessarily the best approach.
Things are never as good as they seem nor as bad as they seem
You reward yourself with effort and discipline
Governments should use simpler heuristics about war.
Our complex world is immensely more complicated than we know or can know.
Keep the minutes as you decide what to do and how to do it.
Models help you understand a problem They are a summary of the implications of what you know.
Never accept the output from a model as a fact about the future.
Critics are of little value unless they add value to the solution.