Category: Decision Making

Could Anyone Estimate The Future?


Suppose in 1964 you were asked to project the future of the world 50 years later. What are the chances you would have said: GM will have been bankrupt IBM will not be dominant The American steel industry will be mostly gone. Pittsburgh will… Continue Reading “Could Anyone Estimate The Future?”

If You Think You Can, You Might


“If you think you can, you might; if you think you can’t, you’re right.”   –  Child baseball team motto Most animals cannot consciously plan far into the future.  People can. They can imagine the future.  They can create goals.  They can choose tactics to… Continue Reading “If You Think You Can, You Might”

Happiness Can’t Buy Money


Sometimes the best advice comes from the people who have been there and done that.  To Wit: a recent panel discussion at Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit in New York, on Monday, Sept. 22, 2014.  Panelists Michael Bloomberg (net worth $34 Billion ) and… Continue Reading “Happiness Can’t Buy Money”

Businesses Have an ORG Chart For A Reason


If you ran a reasonable sized business, how would you organize it? Think of it in layers.  Call them operations, planning and deciding, and vision and purpose. For a very small businesses all three layers overlap.  For larger ones they are more distinct. Vision… Continue Reading “Businesses Have an ORG Chart For A Reason”

Intuition Is Your Enemy


Intuition used to be reality based.  Not so much any more.  For example, What should we do about wealth disparity?  The 1%ers? There is no shortage of material for the discussion, but on examination, most of it does not make sense.  Let’s look at… Continue Reading “Intuition Is Your Enemy”

You Are Your Own Planner, But You Need Help


If you own a business or are a professional like a doctor, lawyer or engineer, it is likely that you will work more than 100,000 hours in your career..  If you are an employee, it is likely to be more than 70,000. Taking together… Continue Reading “You Are Your Own Planner, But You Need Help”

How Big Is Your Time Envelope?


We met a couple recently who are supremely organized.  A recent trip to England and Ireland took two years of “saving the pennies” and a dedication to planning the itinerary.  Things they knew they booked six months in advance.  Flights, apartment in London, first… Continue Reading “How Big Is Your Time Envelope?”

Interest Rates In Interesting Times


The interaction of cash, credit, asset formation and growth is a complicated and to some extent, an unknowable puzzle. Bill Gross of Pimco points out some useful interconnections in his September 2014 newsletter.  Its title, For Wonks Only, is a little intimidating but his… Continue Reading “Interest Rates In Interesting Times”

Identical Answers With Different Meaning


If I have two identical answers to the same problem, but one of them is wrong, should I think a little deeper? Let us suppose you have a business worth $3,000,000 and other assets worth $1,000,000.  Everything is looking good.  I approach you about… Continue Reading “Identical Answers With Different Meaning”

Curing Evil Is Delicate Work


Can you cure evil by destroying it?  Assuming you can do so, you need to ask, “What then?”  Implementing any solution does not usually mean you have reached the end of the decision tree. Every decision becomes the input for a new circumstance. There… Continue Reading “Curing Evil Is Delicate Work”

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